On March 16 (Monday), Morgan Stanley expressed a bullish outlook on aluminum prices as ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to increased smelter shutdowns in the Middle East.
The bank reported that approximately 564,000 tonnes per year of aluminum capacity in the region is currently offline, accounting for 0.8% of global capacity, further tightening the global market.
The shutdowns in the Middle East have compounded supply constraints following the suspension of a 500,000 t/y smelter in Mozambique earlier this month.
The Middle East produces about 9% of global aluminum, but only 3% of alumina and 1.3% of bauxite, making the region heavily dependent on imported raw materials that must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Raw material availability is becoming a growing concern for regional smelters. Approximately 2 tonnes of bauxite are required to produce 1 tonne of alumina, and 2 tonnes of alumina are needed to produce 1 tonne of aluminum.
According to a March 11 report by Platts, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has very low raw material inventories, while Emirates Global Aluminium holds only two to three weeks of buffer stock.
Morgan Stanley has set a bullish price target of $3,700 per tonne for FY2026 aluminum. The bank noted that, in addition to Middle East disruptions, other supporting factors include restricted supply in China, slower output growth in Indonesia due to power issues, and challenges to capacity expansion in other regions.
The aluminum forward curve has moved into a steep backwardation structure, indicating tight market conditions. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange (LME) registered inventories have fallen to their lowest level since May 2025.
Regional premiums are also rising, with all-in prices in Japan, Europe, and the United States increasing beyond LME benchmark levels, reflecting growing supply tightness.
[出处 – 上海有色网] 摩根士丹利：全球供应紧张形势加剧 对铝价持乐观态度 https://news.smm.cn/news/103808471
