According to foreign reports on December 11th, the closure and production interruptions of copper mines have rapidly altered the copper supply landscape, leading analysts to lower their forecasts for copper oversupply, sending a positive signal for the industrial metal’s price.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price rose last Friday to $8,640 per ton, reaching a four-month high since December 1st, partially due to Anglo American’s reduction in production guidance. The London-listed mining company stated that next year’s production would range from 730,000 to 790,000 tons, a 20% reduction from previous estimates, while the production forecast for 2025 is 690,000 to 750,000 tons, down 18% from earlier projections.
Anglo American is conducting maintenance and adjustments to its processing plant in Los Bronces, Chile, and modifying plans for the Quellaveco plant in Peru to safely navigate geological fault lines. Analyst Alice Fox of Macquarie commented, “Anglo American’s latest 2026 financial forecast is much lower than our expectations. Vale’s new guidance this week was also below our expectations, but on a different scale… If demand remains stable, the price outlook will be more optimistic.”
Brazil’s Vale estimates its copper production for 2024 at 320,000 to 355,000 tons, compared to 325,000 tons this year.
Macquarie currently predicts copper market surpluses of 100,000 tons in 2024 and 287,000 tons in 2025, lower than previous forecasts of 203,000 tons and 369,000 tons, respectively. Global copper production is expected to be around 27 million tons in the coming year and in 2025.
The supply disruption of First Quantum’s Cobre mine in Panama, which accounted for 1% of global extraction supply last year, is also on the watchlist. Due to the country’s highest court declaring the contract for First Quantum to own and operate the mine unconstitutional, the mine’s future is uncertain.
Even before this announcement, U.S. bank analyst Michael Widmer had already excluded Cobre Panama from his estimates of copper supply for the next year and adjusted the forecast from a small surplus to a shortage.
Widmer stated, “For us, a restart before the May 2024 Panamanian elections seems unlikely, meaning that once the new government is established, First Quantum can start negotiating contracts. Although the elections may bring about change, we now believe that Cobre Panama may restart in the fourth quarter of next year.”
[Source – 上海有色网] 最大铜矿之一停产、英美资源下调产量指引 供应收紧将为铜价创造有利条件 https://news.smm.cn/news/102521453
