On April 8th, the main futures contract for Shanghai Aluminum neared 20,000 RMB per ton, reaching a new high since June 2022. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals analyst Li Jiahui believes that from a supply and demand perspective, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be in a tight balance in 2024. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum is slowing down, and the instability of future power supplies in regions like Yunnan will continue to limit the operation rates of domestic electrolytic aluminum manufacturers. It is anticipated that in 2024, China will still need to import aluminum ingots from abroad. The tight supply-demand fundamentals are expected to strongly support aluminum prices in 2024.
Guotai Junan Securities analysts, including Yu Jiayi, stated in a research report on March 24th that the demand for bauxite in China is expected to reach 231 million tons in 2024, growing at a rate of 9.5%. Meanwhile, domestic safety production and ecological environmental policies will continue to restrict the start-up of bauxite mines, leading to a significant portion of bauxite demand shifting to imported ore. It is predicted that the domestic bauxite supply gap will widen to -15.51 million tons in 2024, bauxite prices are expected to rise long-term, and the profits at the bauxite stage are expected to increase, strengthening the advantage of aluminum companies at the mining end. High self-sufficiency rate aluminum companies are likely to benefit.
According to the CAIFU database, among the listed companies:
China Aluminum Corporation is the world’s second-largest producer of alumina, with 14 bauxite mines in production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi as of the 2022 annual report, holding a total reserve of approximately 520 million tons.
Yun Aluminum Share Co., Ltd. has built a complete industrial chain that integrates “bauxite mining, hydropower, aluminum smelting, and deep aluminum processing,” with its wholly-owned subsidiary Yun Aluminum Wenshan Bauxite Mine holding a resource reserve of about 150 million tons.
[Source – 上海有色网] 供应短缺支撑价格上涨 分析师看好铝土矿自给率高的铝企 https://news.smm.cn/news/102698307
