UBS Forecasts Oversupply in Nickel and Lithium Markets

According to a report by, by the end of 2024, “reduced supply” will become a common theme in the nickel and lithium industries.

“Overall, supply growth is expected to outpace demand growth in 2024,” UBS stated in its 2024 Battery Metals Outlook report.

“However, spot prices are approaching the cost curve, and we are already seeing early signs of reductions.”

Australian battery metal miners have already felt the cost pressure, leading to a halt in numerous projects for 2024.

Nickel miners are facing the most severe issues, with an oversupply in Indonesia causing base metal prices to plummet.

“The Indonesian election is not expected to greatly impact the country’s nickel strategy, as all three candidates have indicated they will continue the current policies,” UBS noted.

“More production cuts are needed to balance the market,” UBS said.

Meanwhile, the institution forecasts lithium spodumene and chemical prices in 2024 to be between $1,050-1,100 per ton and $12,730 per ton, respectively.

UBS expects a 40% increase in supply, while demand is projected to grow by 25%.

Affected by production increases in countries and regions like Australia and South America, current lithium prices are only a quarter of those in 2023.

However, the institution predicts that production cuts by African and Australian companies will lead to a supply reduction.

UBS also expects significant growth in investment in graphite projects outside China, although their costs are twice as high as those in China.

[Source – 上海有色网] 瑞银预测镍锂市场供应过剩

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